Guide to the Ukraine-Russia war
By: Aavanthika Sukesh
January 29, 2022
Recent high tensions between Ukraine and Russia have sparked the fear of a potential war breaking out. WIth more than 127,000 armed Russian troops stationed at the Ukrainian border, the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) allies are deploying more assistance and reinforcements in support of Ukraine.
History between Ukraine and Russia
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To fully understand the conflict between the two countries, we need to look at the history. Both Ukraine and Russia were part of the Soviet Union and Ukraine gained independence from Moscow in 1991.
The violent crisis between the two began in November 2013, when protests began against former Pro-Russia President Viktor Yanukovych’s decision to cancel a deal - reportedly under economic pressure from Russia - with the European Union that promises greater economic integration. In March 2014, protests turned into violence as Russia took over and annexed Crimea, a Pro-Russia Ukrainian region. The conflict between the Russian-backed separtiest and Ukrainian military killed more than 14,000 and injured around 24,000. Conflict has continued, sporadically, in the past 8 years, with the United Nations stating there have been more than 3,000 civilian deaths.
Russian soldiers patrol the area surrounding the Ukrainian military unit in Perevalnoye, outside Simferopol, Crimea, on March 20, 2014. (Photo from Getty Images)
Causes of the current situation
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Tensions heightened between Ukraine and Russia in October 2021, as Russia began moving military troops and equipment along the Ukrainian border, satellite images and social media posts show that the Russian troops are equipped with armour, missiles and other heavy equipment. This caused Joe Biden, President of the U.S.A, to threaten Russia with an economic sanction, which cuts Russia’s ability to send and/or receive money from abroad. This method will cause immediate and long term economic consequences.
Photo from Council on Foreign Relations
On December 17th, 2021, the Russian foreign ministry issued a list of demands which included: a ban that ensures that Ukraine will not join NATO, for Nato to halt drills near the Russian border and for them to completely withdraw from Eastern Europe. The U.S. and their NATO allies rejected the list of demands. NATO has sent assistance to Ukraine in the form of small arms and defensive weaponry.
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Future of the Conflict
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On February 6, 2022, U.S. officials said that Russia had assembled 70% of its troops needed to launch a full-scale invasion of Ukraine by the middle of February. The Washington Post and New York Times have estimated about 50,000 civilians getting killed or injured if a full invasion occurs.
Ukraine is training its citizens to help defend in case of war. The government plans to recruit about 130,000 civilians to strengthen defences.
Video by Masha Froliak, Brent McDonald, Dmitriy Khavin and Andriy Dubchak via New York Times
European leaders are trvelling to Kyiv and Moscow to calm tensions however this conflict will further deteriorate Russia’s relations with Europe and the US, which will be harmful as co-operation is needed to discuss other issues such as terrorism.
Sources
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/1/25/five-things-to-know-about-russia-ukraine-tensions
https://edition.cnn.com/2022/01/20/europe/ukraine-russia-tensions-explainer-cmd-intl/index.html
https://www.cfr.org/global-conflict-tracker/conflict/conflict-ukraine
https://www.cfr.org/in-brief/how-do-militaries-russia-and-ukraine-stack